Wednesday, November 7, 2012

US Presidential Election Results: Why did Obama win and Romney lose?

You can find the results here.

After years of campaigning, this ordeal is finally behind us. As expected, Barack Obama was re-elected as President of the United States for a second, four-year term.  The President has an opportunity to accomplish something, anything - more than the nothing he did during his first term. With the economic situation in the US being what it is, by rights, Obama should have been defeated. But providence was smiling sweetly on Obama when the Republicans picked Mitt Romney to be their 2012 Presidential candidate. Romney was a very weak candidate when compared with Obama, whose campaign was plagued with blunders. These gaffes could have been avoided were it not for Romney's identity crisis.

At the core of Romney's problems was that as a candidate, he never communicated consistent values or a compelling vision or platform. Mitt spent the campaign contorting himself into a pretzel, attempting to be liberal and conservative at different stages of his campaign. This identity crisis suffered by Romney is a microcosm of the crisis that is gripping the Republican Party. Members of the GOP, in wake of Romney's inability to win an easy election against a lame-duck President, will have to do some soul searching in the days ahead. Republicans are going to have to decide if they will come to reflect the values of the Tea Party movement. But more problematic for the GOP, its members must come to the painful conclusion that in the 2012 election, no 'Reagan Democrats' came along to push Romney over the top. In fact, the 'Rockefeller Republicans' were out in droves to elect Democrats, Obama included. Romney tried to be moderate and it backfired on him. This will cause a fierce debate among Republicans, about whether to become more moderate.

It is interesting that Nate Silver's predictions were spot on. At the time of the writing of this, Florida had not been declared, but Obama was ahead in the count. Thus Silver was right this time, for 50 out of 50 states.